I have to evaluate the two different weather forecasts as described below. These are the links for maps. I want to verify that I am going in the correct direction. I don't need the full paragraphs as described just short answers descriptions would help to see if I have done my part correctly.
a. Description/Comparison of the forecasted 500 mb height pattern over the Continental US. There should be three short paragraphs in this section. The first describing the 4 day forecasts, the second describing the 7 day forecasts, and the last describing the 10 day forecasts. In each paragraph analyze the forecasted 500 mb height maps by pointing out and locating significant features in the 500 mb height pattern for the continental United States and nearby coastal waters. You do not need to identify features that are not relevant to weather conditions for the continental US. You should identify and locate significant features like troughs, ridges, closed lows and closed highs, if they exist. If you are able, you can say something about the relative strength of the ridges and troughs. You can look at how much 500 mb heights are above or below average by using the color shading on the maps. Try to point out regions of significantly above or below average 500 mb heights (and therefore significantly above or below average temperatures). The shape of a trough can tell you something about its strength (as discussed in the reading notes). You may also want to use terms like "zonal pattern" or "amplified pattern" to describe the forecasted 500 mb height pattern. You can use state names or common geographical names, like great lakes region or pacific northwest or central plains, to locate features. You should not be writing about the 500 mb winds or obscure features in Northern Canada or way out in the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans. You need to discuss the forecasts from both the GFS and ECMWF models. You should specifically point out similarities and differences between the GFS and ECMWF forecasts of the 500 mb height.
b. Specific Weather Forecasts for Tucson.
There should again be three short paragraphs in this section, which are based on the 4 day forecasts, 7 day forecasts, and 10 day forecasts. You are expected to make a general temperature and precipitation forecast for Tucson based on the 500 mb height patterns forecasted by each model. To make the temperature forecast, you are expected to read the 500 mb height over Tucson from each forecast map and include that as part of your answer. You should then compare the forecasted heights with the average 500 mb height over Tucson for early November, which is about 5770 meters. Based on this comparison, make general temperature forecasts of well below average, below average, near average, above average, well above average. (Note. When making a temperature estimate, within about 20 meters of average height, expect near average temperature, 30 to 60 meters above or below average height expect moderately above or below average temperature; more than 60 meters difference means well above or below average temperature.) You should also make precipitation forecasts for Tucson based on where Tucson sits in the 500 mb height pattern for both GFS and ECMWF. For precipitation, just state whether there is a chance for rain in Tucson or not based only on its position within the 500 mb pattern. You do not need to consider the availability of water vapor in the atmosphere in making your precipitation forecast. You need to discuss the Tucson forecasts from both the GFS and ECMWF models, which means you need to report two 500 mb heights. You should specifically point out similarities and differences between the GFS and ECMWF with respect to the expected weather in Tucson.
c. Evaluation of the Accuracy of the Forecasts of the 500 mb Height Pattern
Again, there should be three paragraphs: one each for the 4, 7, and 10 day forecasts. You are expected to judge the accuracy of the forecasted 500 mb height patterns for both the GFS and ECMWF models. Here you are judging how good or bad the forecasts of the 500 mb height pattern from each model actually turned out over the continental US and nearby coastal waters. Try to view the forecast map next to the corresponding verification map to spot visual differences in the forecast pattern vs the actual pattern of 500 mb heights. Concentrate on the region covering the continental US and nearby coastal waters. Look at both the location and relative strength of features that were pointed out in section 2a. Do these features even show up in the verification maps? Are the features in the right position? You need to do this analysis for both the GFS and ECMWF forecasts. Also, try to make a quick determination as to which forecast turned out better, GFS or ECMWF. This may not be obvious. You just need to point out general differences between the forecast and verification without going into great detail. In other words, long detailed paragraphs are not required.
d. Evaluation of the Forecasts for Tucson
Again, there should be three paragraphs: one each for the 4, 7, and 10 day forecasts. You are expected to read the 500 mb height over Tucson from one of the verification maps and include that height as part of your answer. You should compare this true height over Tucson with the forecasts made by both models that you previously recorded in section 2b. You should also evaluate the precipitation forecast by looking at the true 500 mb height pattern near Tucson and the possibility of rain.Which model, if either, made a better forecast for Tucson? Note. There is just one true height for Tucson. The number should be basically the same on both of the verification maps, other than slight uncertainty in the initial conditions. Just read a single true height and compare it to the values from part 3.
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Sep 21, 2019EXPERT
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